Why overthrow Gaddafi is overestimated-time.

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi arrives for an interview television Tripoli, March 8, 2011Christopher Morris / VII for time

It has almost become an article of faith among America's chattering classes that the Western intervention in Libya cannot be considered a success unless Mu'ammar al-Gaddafi is removed from power. In response to the speech from the President Obama on the Libya last week, Eliot Spitzer of CNN said, "" If... we are beginning to withdraw from a military point of view, which is a proposal for a policy very risky for the President, to withdraw until we have obtained this moment of success évidentl' Elimination of Gaddafi. "" On PBS NewsHour last Friday, the Liberal columnist Mark Shields said, "any mission that ends or is over Qaddafi still in effective control of the Libya is a failure". Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona said of Gaddafi that "more remains in power, it becomes more dangerous." Marco Rubio an another Republican Senator, Florida, wants that any resolution of the Senate choirs of the use of force in Libya stipulate that "" suppression of Muammar Gaddafi of power is in our national interest and... allow the President to achieve this goal.""

Since the beginning of the Libyan crisis, Obama expressed his preference for Kadhafi to give up power. But he also insists that "the expansion of our military mission to include the change of regime would be a mistake." This perceived contradiction has provided fodder for critics of the policy of the President, such as former officials of the Bush John Yoo and Robert Delahunty, which she labelled "erratic, improvisation and amateur" and accused Obama of strengthening "of Gaddafi resolve to hang on" by excluding the possibility of an American invasion. (See the photos of the battle for the Libya).

But such arguments are ridiculous. As Obama noted in his speech, reflecting Gaddafi force would involve a military commitment that Americans want nor can afford. And even if the United States were not already struggling to extricate itself from two wars, a military campaign coordinated to remove power Gaddafi would be shortsighted and strategically stupid. Despite the claims of the wheelchair Washington generals, there is no evidence that the judgment of the slaughter on a large scale of civilians - the reason for an international intervention in Libya - requires a change of regime sponsored by the West. It is clear that the Libyan people would be preferable in the long term. In fact, history shows us that employing military power U.S. to overthrow Gaddafi would Libya more harm than good.

The idea of bring down a tyrant of sponsorship of terror can be attractive, but the success rate of change of regime imposed by foreign armies is lamentable. According to Alexander b. Downes, political scientist at Duke University, there were 95 instances of "foreign-imposed regime change" (IFRC) in the world since 1816. Downes has found that in countries where external force has replaced the existing regime with a new, the chances of a civil war erupted in five years has tripled. Leaders who are considered to be installed by foreigners are less able to command loyalty and are more likely to encounter opposition, rebellion and armed insurrection. Public institutions have a greater tendency to collapse, especially if IFRC occurs following a war. (As is true in Libya). And the nations poor, ethnically heterogeneous-the types de places "where the United States and most of other democracies advanced are more likely to undertake de such [interventions]"-are the most likely to the instability de the end de the modified regime. (See the speech of Libya of President Obama.).

Historical data, Downes concludes, suggest that "reversal of other Governments is an instrument of policy with limited utility because of its potential to ignite civil wars." But this does not mean that the world is powerless to stop state-sanctioned aggression. Kosovo. After the first war of Gulf, a zone of non-overview sanctioned by the United Nations on the Iraq of North preserved the population Kurdish of Saddam Hussein. In 2000, the British Prime Minister Tony Blair sends a force of paratroopers and Royal Marines to Sierra Leone to shore blue helmets of the United Nations and to prevent the Government to be overrun by militia commanded by warlord Liberian Charles Taylor.

In three cases, the West ceased overthrow leaders accountable for the achievement of the atrocities at least as extreme as those committed by Gaddafi. Hawks complained at the time when this true stability was impossible as long as the rogues remained in power. And yet in the three cases, the fundamental humanitarian objectives of the protection of civilians and to prevent the massacres have been achieved, at a fraction of the human, financial and strategic to start the scheme costs change by force - as we learned later the hard way in Iraq. (Read "Libya: why Western Forces selectively the Police of the world.")

Power? The people Libyan deserves no doubt of to get rid of one such threat- and perhaps of his son too. But it is of the madness countries foreign in order to determine how and when they will. Those who criticize the Obama to be too cautious on the Libya are right on one point: the only coalition air campaign is not sufficient to dislodge the Al-Gaddafi. They do not provide justice for its victims. But it has already saved lives, limited the amount of damages Gaddafi may impose on its own people and caused his entourage to crack.

That said, the anti-Gaddafi ragtag forces are not to March to Tripoli. A blow of Palace, except in the case of war of the Libya pourrait become one impasse extended which requires of the coalition do meet a zone of non-overview for some weeks, or even of months, to come. Containment can be to reveal the West in Libya more acceptable policy option. (Comment on this story).

What this means for the become ultimate of colonel is for the Libyan of decide. The deletion by the force Gaddafi's power, it is certainly the purpose of rebel who have taken the weapons against him. But we did have to make our way.

Ratnesar, a time contributing editor-at-large, is Bernard l. Schwartz Fellow at the new foundation of America and the author of Tear Down this wall: a city, a President, and the speech that ended the cold war. His column on Global Affairs appears every Monday on TIME.com.

Watch "" Libyan rebels have Passion, lack order. ""

See photos of clothing crazy Gaddafi.

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